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BTCUSD short — 25 Sep 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 83,421.8 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 83,881.5 with a price move of -0.55%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-25 14:08 |
| Entry | 83,421.8 |
| Stop-loss | 84,480 |
| Take-profit 1 | 82,676.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 82,180 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.17 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 83,881.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.55% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bear-aligned, 1h mixed, 4h bull), 1h ADX 15.8 slope -1.5 (fading, near chop), choppiness 48.7 (mid), ER_30 0.03 (path netting nowhere), Hurst 0.61 (persistent), HMM calm — transitional tape leaning bearish on the near-timeframes after -1.5% in 4h. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT lean — 5m/15m EMA bear-aligned, negative net moves across 4h/12h, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -3.86), fresh downside momentum despite 4h bull structure. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short-term momentum cluster — recent net_move_pct_4h -1.46, 15m/5m bear stacks, OI momentum accelerating_down (positions being cut into weakness) — this is an active downdraft, though top-trader pos ratio 1.92 (heavily long) and 4h bull structure argue against extension. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m RSI 29 (oversold) plus 4h bull-aligned EMA — a bounce/reclaim of ~83,900 would invalidate the short and revert to the 4h uptrend. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 83,421; stop above the 4h structure / recent swing at 84,480 (~1.27% risk, within rv/atr range); take_profit_1 stretch at 82,180 (~1.49% reward, R:R ~1.17) toward the 5d-low zone. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold 15m + heavy long positioning cap downside odds; give near-even with slight edge to SL given the counter-4h nature.
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