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BTCUSD short — 9 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 82,077.6 and stopped out at 83,340 after 8.7 hours, closing at -1.54%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-09 03:05 |
| Entry | 82,077.6 |
| Stop-loss | 83,340 |
| Take-profit 1 | 81,167.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 80,560 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 83,340 |
| Realized P&L | -1.54% |
| Time open | 8.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 2/4 (15m/1h bear-aligned, 5m/4h mixed), 1h ADX 38.6 but slope -5.8 (strong trend now fading), choppiness 42 / ER_10 0.73 but ER_30 0.15 (recent push clean, longer path nets nowhere), Hurst 0.44 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a bear trend losing steam, price stretched to the downside (rolling_z_20d -1.87, dist_from_5d_low only +1.69%). 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT remains the trend-aligned lean, but the fade signals (ADX slope -5.8, taker 1.28 buy-heavy last hour, top-trader pos ratio 1.64 long, net_move_4h +0.45% bounce) warn against chasing lows; the dominant evidence still tilts bearish given bear-aligned 15m/1h and -238M BTC ETF outflow. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: bear trend continuation — 15m/1h EMAs bear-stacked, agg OI -4.2% / Binance OI -4.6% (longs bleeding out), fresh -238.6M ETF net outflow, btc_dominance falling while usdt_dominance rising (risk-off); the recent 4h bounce is a lower-high opportunity to short into the downtrend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is already z -1.87 stretched with ADX fading and taker flow turning buy-heavy — a reclaim back above ~83,200 would signal the bounce has legs and invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 82,077; stop above the recent 4h bounce structure at 83,340 (dist ~1.54%, within the 24h RV band given rv_24h ~1.2% typical traversal but RV pctile elevated); take_profit_1 at 80,560, a stretch toward the 5d low region (dist ~1.85%, R:R ~1.2). 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but stretched and fading, so meaningful chance of neither hitting within 24h.
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