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BTCUSD short — 13 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 81,186.3 and stopped out at 82,460 after 1.2 hours, closing at -1.57%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-13 00:50 |
| Entry | 81,186.3 |
| Stop-loss | 82,460 |
| Take-profit 1 | 80,234.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 79,600 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 82,460 |
| Realized P&L | -1.57% |
| Time open | 1.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF bear-aligned on 5m/15m/1h (alignment 4/4, labeled mixed only because 4h EMA still mixed), 1h ADX 26.2 slope +2.7 (genuine trend, firming), choppiness 41 / ER_10 0.48 / ER_30 0.35 (moderately directional down), Hurst 0.47, HMM calm — a down-trend pressing fresh lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear SHORT lean — net moves negative across 4h/12h/24h (-2.35/-1.95/-3.35%), price at 5d/20d/90d low (+0.49% off), rolling_z -1.93. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.88, oi_15m_z -2.92, agg_oi -2.82%) with price falling = leveraged longs capitulating into a breakdown, last-hour taker ratio 0.705 (sellers dominant), fresh 90d low. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold (5m 18.9, 15m 17.2, 1h 26.5) and top-traders still net long (pos ratio 1.61) — a sharp oversold-reclaim bounce above the broken 5d-low shelf would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 81,186; stop above the recent breakdown shelf / intraday structure at 82,460 (~1.57% / within 1h atr-scaled 24h range); target the next downside extension at 79,600 (~1.95%, R:R ~1.25, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold stretch tempers follow-through odds but trend + flow favor continuation.
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