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BTCUSD short — 16 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 80,904.7 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 81,232 with a price move of -0.40%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-16 17:20 |
| Entry | 80,904.7 |
| Stop-loss | 82,180 |
| Take-profit 1 | 79,971.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 79,350 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 81,232 |
| Realized P&L | -0.40% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 13.5 slope +1.7, adx_20 13.1, choppiness 41.9, ER_30 0.006 (path nets nowhere), Hurst 0.40 mean-reverting, HMM calm — low-ADX chop with a persistent downward drift; 5m/1h EMA bear-aligned, 15m/4h mixed. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net moves negative across all horizons (-1.34/-1.51/-1.82%), price pressing fresh 5d/20d/90d low (-3.9% from high, +0.9% off low), OI bleeding (oi_5m_z -1.90, agg_oi_24h -0.40%, accelerating_down). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — the dominant cluster is flow/structure: price at the 90d low with OI accelerating down and 24h momentum clearly negative; this exact short setup won 3 of the last 3 wins on this asset. 4. PRE-MORTEM: rolling z -2.26 and 5m/15m RSI ~28 (oversold) with taker ratio 1.28 could spark a mean-revert bounce that reclaims the breakdown — that would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 80,904.66; stop above the recent swing/invalidation at 82,180 (~1.58% / ~0.54x rv_24h-of-29% daily range); target the next structural extension down at 79,350 (~1.92%, R:R ~1.2x, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold + top-traders still net long (1.57) temper the short, keeping a real bounce risk and chop-driven expire probability.
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