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BTCUSD short — 17 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 81,268.2 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 81,149.5 with a price move of +0.15%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-17 17:39 |
| Entry | 81,268.2 |
| Stop-loss | 82,490 |
| Take-profit 1 | 80,417.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 79,850 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 81,149.5 |
| Realized P&L | +0.15% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: EMA stack bear-aligned on 5m/15m/1h (4h mixed), 1h ADX 15.9 slope +2.8 (firming off a low), choppiness 48.2 / ER_10 0.56 / ER_30 0.36, Hurst 0.39 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a transitional, mildly-firming downtrend in a calm-vol regime pressing near-the-lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net moves negative on 4h/12h (-0.24/-0.33%), price near 5d/20d/90d low (-3.05/-3.46%), rolling z -1.47 (stretched below mean), OI accelerating_down with oi_15m_z -1.15. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow/OI cluster — taker ratio 0.79 (sellers dominant), aggregated longs 96.8% of 4h liquidations (longs getting flushed), OI bleeding (accelerating_down) into falling price = trend-aligned short continuation; macro also risk-off (SPX -1.1%, VIX +21%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: rolling z -1.47 and Hurst 0.39 flag a stretched mean-reverting tape — a reclaim above the 5d area (~83,800) with top-traders still net-long (pos ratio 1.73) would snap this back up. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 81,268; stop_loss 82,490 above the near-term reclaim shelf (~1.50% / within the ~2.7% ADR); take_profit_1 79,850 toward the fresh-low extension (1.74% / RR ~1.16, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but stretched and low-ADX, so meaningful chop/expire risk.
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