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BTCUSD short — 29 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 80,049.4 and stopped out at 81,290 after 12.6 hours, closing at -1.55%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-29 01:57 |
| Entry | 80,049.4 |
| Stop-loss | 81,290 |
| Take-profit 1 | 79,185.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 78,610 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 81,290 |
| Realized P&L | -1.55% |
| Time open | 12.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (5m & 4h bear-aligned, 15m/1h mixed), 1h ADX 27.7 slope ~flat, 4h ADX 22, choppiness 51.3, ER_10 0.19 / ER_30 0.14 (noisy, nets-nowhere), Hurst 0.51 neutral, HMM calm — a genuine but choppy down-drift with a 4h bear tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net moves negative across all horizons (-1.62/-0.87/-1.12% at 4h/12h/24h), OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.94, agg_oi -0.93%), price pinned near 5d low (-1.89% from 5d high, only +0.59% off 5d/20d/90d low), rolling z -1.11. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — the 4h & 5m EMA stacks are bear-aligned and OI is bleeding (accelerating_down) as price presses lows with aggregated longs getting liquidated (agg_liq 4h 99% long share), confirming a downside unwind. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold short-TF RSI (5m 16.9 / 15m 20.5) plus top-trader pos ratio 1.87 (heavily long) risks a sharp mean-reversion bounce off the 5d/20d low. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 80,049; stop 81,290 beyond the recent intraday stall / above a reclaim of the 1h structure (~1.55% stop, within the elevated rv_24h which sits at 96th pctile); take_profit_1 78,610 — a push through the 90d low toward the next structural shelf (R:R ~1.16, inside clamps, reachable given avg 24h traversal ~1.05% but vol is elevated today). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold RSI tempers downside follow-through, so modest edge only.
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