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BTCUSD short — 4 Nov 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 77,936.7 and stopped out at 78,720 after 8.8 hours, closing at -1.00%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-04 05:53 |
| Entry | 77,936.7 |
| Stop-loss | 78,720 |
| Take-profit 1 | 77,380.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 77,010 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 78,720 |
| Realized P&L | -1.00% |
| Time open | 8.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 but 15m/1h/4h all EMA bear-aligned, 1h ADX 22.1 slope -1.2 (trend fading), choppiness 42.9, ER_10 0.09 / ER_30 0.16 (path nets almost nowhere), Hurst 0.36 (persistent/MR-ish), HMM calm, Fear 34 — a soft bear-tilted tape that has just bounced +1.6% in 24h and +1.2% in the last 4h. 2. LEAN CHECK: this is a counter-trend bounce (5m RSI 75 overbought) into a bear-aligned higher-TF stack; the bounce is extended and losing structural support, so the lean is SHORT back toward the trend. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: higher-TF EMA stack bear-aligned on 15m/1h/4h + OI momentum accelerating_down (-1.53% recent-half) with aggregate OI rising on a down-structure (short conviction building), and price just -0.87% under the 5d high where the overbought 5m bounce should stall — a trend-aligned fade. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a clean reclaim and hold above the 5d high (~78,620) with taker ratio staying >1.1 would flip the near-term structure bullish and invalidate the fade. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 77,936; stop 78,720 just beyond the 5d-high reclaim level (~1.0% / within the 2.6% daily range and ~0.7x rv); take_profit_1 77,010 at the recent intraday support shelf, ~1.19% / RR ~1.18x, reachable within the 1.18% typical 24h traversal. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought fade with trend tailwind but thin ER and a live bounce — modest edge.
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