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BTCUSD short — 5 Nov 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 75,563.5 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 75,730 with a price move of -0.22%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-05 15:53 |
| Entry | 75,563.5 |
| Stop-loss | 77,180 |
| Take-profit 1 | 74,108.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 73,138.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 75,730 |
| Realized P&L | -0.22% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h bull-aligned lag, 4h bear), 1h ADX 33.8 slope +1.19 (firming), choppiness 18.8 (strongly trending), ER_10 0.83 (very clean recent leg) / ER_30 0.26, Hurst 0.39 (mild MR), HMM calm — a genuine, firming downside trend with a sharp -5.9% 24h flush. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net moves -5.93/-6.08/-5.80% all down, OI collapsing (oi_5m_z -5.35, agg_oi_24h -11.4%, momentum accelerating_down), taker ratio 0.78 (sellers dominant), funding still positive while price craters = longs underwater and bleeding. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — the dominant cluster is flow/OI: accelerating_down OI with sell-side taker pressure and a clean ER_10 impulse confirm forced long unwind, and price is pinned at the 5d/20d/90d low with no reclaim. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold (1h 18, 5m 13, 15m 6.7) at the exact low and z_score -1.99 — a violent mean-reversion bounce off the low would invalidate; this is the real counter-risk. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 75,563.53; stop above the recent intraday swing/reclaim zone at 77,180 (~2.14% / ~0.9x the 24h realized range, beyond the oversold-bounce invalidation); take_profit_1 at 72,980, a structural extension below the low, ~3.42% down and ~1.2x stop distance, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend + flow but extreme oversold caps follow-through odds and raises bounce risk.
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