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BTCUSD short — 5 Nov 2026 (hit target)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 78,944.2 and hit its target at 78,173.7 after 19 minutes, closing at +0.98%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-05 14:38 |
| Entry | 78,944.2 |
| Stop-loss | 79,980 |
| Take-profit 1 | 78,173.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 77,660 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.24 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 78,173.7 |
| Realized P&L | +0.98% |
| Time open | 19 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 0/4 (5m bear, 15m/4h mixed, only 1h bull-aligned), 1h ADX 30.2 but slope -4.7 (trend fading hard), choppiness 40.3, ER_10 0.61 / ER_30 0.06 (recent leg clean but nets nowhere over 30 bars), Hurst 0.44 (mild MR), HMM calm — a fading-momentum tape with a fresh downside impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net moves -1.71/-2.03/-0.52% at 4h/12h/24h (fresh down leg), OI accelerating_down with extreme negative OI z (-3.1), agg OI -4.1%, taker 0.85 (sellers dominant), funding z +1.2 (crowded long unwinding). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — aggressive OI purge (oi_5m_z -3.1, accelerating_down, agg_oi -4.1%) plus taker 0.85 sell-skew and a -1.7% 4h impulse confirms longs being flushed; funding still +1.2z (crowded long) leaves fuel for further liquidation downside. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m/15m RSI deeply oversold (23/20) and top-traders net long (pos ratio 1.94) — a reflex bounce reclaiming the broken level invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 78,944; stop beyond the 5d_high-side reclaim pivot at 79,980 (~1.3% = ~0.87x rv_24h daily range); stretch target 77,660 (~1.63% below, RR ~1.24, inside clamps) toward the 5d_low zone. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold intraday caps downside odds; p_tp1 42, p_sl 35, p_expire 23.
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