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DOGEUSD long — 22 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This long on DOGEUSD entered at 0.097961 and hit its target at 0.099906 after 2.1 hours, closing at +1.99%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-22 10:53 |
| Entry | 0.097961 |
| Stop-loss | 0.0958 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.099906 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.101202 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 0.099906 |
| Realized P&L | +1.99% |
| Time open | 2.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h EMA bull_aligned but 5m bear/15m mixed (alignment 0/4, mtf mixed), 1h ADX 57 but slope -5.6 (strong trend fading hard), ER-10 0.15 (recent path very choppy/netting nowhere) vs ER-30 0.33, choppiness 53 neutral, Hurst 0.68 persistent, HMM volatile 0.76 — an extended bull up-leg that has stalled and is pulling back near-term. 2. LEAN CHECK: net +5.3% 24h but -1.96% 4h and -2.56% 12h — a clear near-term pullback within a still-up higher-TF structure; rolling z +2.27 (stretched), RV 24h at 100th pctile (blown out), FGI 78 extreme greed — the setup favors continuation of the pullback / caution on longs, but higher-TF trend and top-trader pos ratio 3.4 long still lean the bias up; net I take the trend-aligned long on the pullback but at low confidence given the fade. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: higher-TF EMA stack bull_aligned (1h+4h), OI +19.7% 24h with top-trader pos ratio 3.4 heavily long, Hurst 0.68 persistent — trend-aligned long into a pullback near the 5d high (-4% away, room to reclaim). 4. PRE-MORTEM: ADX slope -5.6, taker 0.93 (sellers), funding momentum negative, RV at 100th pctile — if the pullback deepens through recent support the up-leg is done and this is a top. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.097961; stop below the 12h pullback low structure at 0.09490 (~3.1% risk, within ~0.5-0.8x the 7% daily range); TP1 stretch at 0.10190 (~2.0% / R:R ~0.66)... adjust — need R:R>=1: set TP1 at 0.10190 gives 2.0% reward vs 3.1% risk = 0.65, too low, so tighten stop to 0.09580 (2.2% risk) and TP1 0.10160 (2.2% reward, R:R 1.0). 6. EXPECTATION: extended stretched tape with fading ADX makes continuation uncertain; base rate DOGE wr 54.5%.
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