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DOGEUSD long — 11 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This long on DOGEUSD entered at 0.085856 and hit its target at 0.087112 after 12.9 hours, closing at +1.46%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| Entry | 0.085856 |
| Stop-loss | 0.08418 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.087112 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.08795 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 0.087112 |
| Realized P&L | +1.46% |
| Time open | 12.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 2/4 mixed (5m/15m mixed, 1h/4h bear-aligned), 1h ADX 14.6 slope -2.6 (chop floor, fading), 4h ADX 40 (the real trend lives on 4h, bearish), ER-10 0.22 / ER-30 0.10 (very noisy, nets nowhere), choppiness 53 (neutral), Hurst 0.44 mean-reverting, HMM calm 99.95% — low-vol chop sitting beneath a bearish 4h structure, 24h RV at just the 9.7th percentile. 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence is genuinely two-sided — 1h/4h EMA bear-aligned and price down -0.79% / z-score -1.18 (bear structure) vs. taker buy 1.21 last hour, OI building (oi_15m_z +2.98), top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 3.32), funding deeply negative (z -1.98, shorts paying) which is a squeeze-fuel setup; the net flow tilt slightly favors a bounce in a mean-reverting tape. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: lean short-term LONG — deeply negative funding (agg z -1.98) + crowded shorts + fresh OI build + recent taker buy pressure in a Hurst<0.5 mean-reverting regime off the lower part of the range (+5.3% above 5d/20d low) sets up a reversion squeeze; this is counter to the 4h bear so it's a low-conviction fade, not a trend trade. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a clean break below the 5d low (~0.0815 area) with ADX re-expanding resumes the 4h downtrend and invalidates the reversion. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.085856; stop 0.084180 below the recent swing/pre-breakdown shelf (~1.95% ≈ ~1x the 24h traversal of 2.52%); take_profit_1 0.087950 at the mid-range reversion level (~2.44%, R:R ~1.25, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reverting squeeze fuel is real but counter-trend into a bearish 4h, so modest edge with high expire odds in low-vol tape.
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