DOGEUSD short — 23 Jul 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.069539 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.06935 with a price move of +0.27%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-23 15:33 |
| Entry | 0.069539 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07135 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.067909 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.066823 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.06935 |
| Realized P&L | +0.27% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bearish MTF (4/4 bear-aligned 5m-4h), 1h ADX 34.7 rising fast (slope +9.7), choppiness 26.8 (trending), Hurst 0.27 (mean-reverting hints), agg funding negative (z -1.43) — a genuine, strengthening bear trend, but price is deeply extended (rolling z -3.92, 1h RSI 20.5 oversold, at 20d/90d low). 2. LEAN CHECK: trend is decisively down and momentum is accelerating (net -3.99% 4h), but oversold-at-lows conditions temper conviction; short is the trend-aligned side. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strengthening ADX + full bearish stack + fresh 20d/90d low + taker 0.95 sell-lean and top-trader pos ratio fading (4h chg -0.32) = continuation of the bear leg; no reclaim exists to justify a long. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold (RSI 20, z -3.9) at the 90d low invites a mean-reversion bounce — a reclaim of ~0.0710 would kill the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the invalidation reclaim at 0.07135 (~2.6% away, beyond recent structure); TP1 stretch at 0.06665 (~4.1% away), a structural extension of the leg, RR ~1.55, reachable given rv_24h 49% and p90 daily range 6.2%. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but extended into oversold lows raises expire/bounce risk.
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