DOGEUSD short — 24 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.06932 and stopped out at 0.07035 after 23.3 hours, closing at -1.49%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-24 15:33 |
| Entry | 0.06932 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07035 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.068393 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.067775 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.07035 |
| Realized P&L | -1.49% |
| Time open | 23.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bearish MTF alignment (4/4 bear_aligned EMA stacks 5m-4h), 1h ADX 49.3 (very strong) though slope flat (-0.04), choppiness 51, Hurst 0.45 — a strong, mature bear trend that is no longer accelerating. 2. LEAN CHECK: trend-aligned short is the obvious side, but rolling z-score is -2.45 (deeply extended below 20d mean) and price sits +0.80% off its 5d/20d/90d low — the trend is stretched and near support, so this is a tempered short not a fresh one. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI accelerating_down (oi_15m_z -0.52, oi_change_recent_half -1.66%, agg_oi_24h -0.87%) into a falling price = shorts covering / longs unwinding continuation, and net_move -0.74%/24h with negative funding z (-1.37) confirms the bear drift; this is the trend-aligned side that has won repeatedly on DOGE this regime. 4. PRE-MORTEM: z-score -2.45 and only +0.80% above the 90d low — a mean-reversion bounce off support with top-trader position ratio at 2.04 (heavy long lean) would invalidate; a reclaim of ~0.0700 breaks the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.06932, stop above the 0.0700 reclaim / recent structure at 0.07035 (~1.48%), stretch target down toward a break of the 90d low region at 0.06755 (~2.55%), R:R ~1.7. 6. EXPECTATION: extended trend near support caps downside follow-through, so meaningful expire/bounce risk.
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