DOGEUSD short — 29 Jul 2026 (expired)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.069733 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 0.0706 with a price move of -1.24%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-29 20:36 |
| Entry | 0.069733 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07118 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.068431 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.067563 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 0.0706 |
| Realized P&L | -1.24% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bearish MTF alignment (4/4 bear-aligned 5m/15m/1h/4h), 1h ADX 27 (genuine trend though slope -1.3 = mildly fading), Hurst ~0.51 neutral, choppiness 47 (mid), agg funding negative (z -1.32) — a real, if maturing, bear trend down. 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence favors the short side — trend stack fully bearish and near-term momentum negative (net -0.91% 4h, -1.64% 12h). 3. THESIS: trend-aligned short backed by seller-dominant flow (taker 1h 0.70, latest bucket weakest of the day), OI accelerating_down (oi_15m_z -2.94, oi_change -3.3%) into a falling price = shorts-confirming continuation, not squeeze fuel; DOGE prints +1.99% short win in this exact regime hours ago. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio heavily LONG (2.48) plus Fear 29 and z_score -1.24 (extended near 5d low, +1.1% off it) = bounce risk if trend exhausts. 5. LEVELS: mark 0.069733; stop above the recent 4h swing/reclaim zone at 0.07118 (~2.1%, beyond the intraday chop); stretch TP at 0.06720 (~3.05% down, ~1.45x risk) toward the next structural low extension, reachable given avg 24h traversal ~2.05% and RV pctile 87%. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned continuation but extended and top-traders leaning long, so modest edge with real bounce risk.
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