DOGEUSD short — 10 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.06993 and stopped out at 0.07105 after 14.6 hours, closing at -1.60%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-10 23:23 |
| Entry | 0.06993 |
| Stop-loss | 0.07105 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.069222 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.06875 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.05 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.07105 |
| Realized P&L | -1.60% |
| Time open | 14.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF labeled mixed/transitional (5m/15m/4h bear-aligned, 1h mixed), 1h ADX 19.9 with mildly positive slope but ER-10 0.18/ER-30 0.12 and choppiness 64.8 (range-bound), Hurst 0.35 (mean-reverting), HMM calm, RV at 5th pctile — dead, low-vol chop with a faint bear tilt underneath. 2. LEAN CHECK: EMA stacks lean bear on 3 of 4 TFs and taker ratio 0.98 (mild sell), but OI rising (+3.2% 24h, oi_z +1.57) and top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 2.75) push the other way — genuinely two-sided, but the higher-TF EMA lean plus soft taker sell edges it short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: bear-aligned 5m/15m/4h EMA stacks plus taker sub-1.0 and this asset's track record of winning shorts in exactly this soft-bear-drift-in-chop regime; counter-trend longs by top-traders are a crowding risk, not confirmation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: rising OI with heavy top-trader long positioning could squeeze price up through the 5d high (-1.9% away), invalidating the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the near resistance/5d-high zone at 0.07105 (~1.6% up); take_profit_1 at 0.06855 (~1.1% down), a reachable structural level within 24h given avg 24h traversal ~0.84% and RV, giving R:R ~0.71 — too tight, so I widen TP to 0.06835 for R:R ~1.05. 6. EXPECTATION: chop favors expiry; short lean is thin.
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