DOGEUSD short — 22 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.089284 and stopped out at 0.09135 after 2.2 hours, closing at -2.31%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-22 10:12 |
| Entry | 0.089284 |
| Stop-loss | 0.09135 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.087614 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.0865 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.35 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.09135 |
| Realized P&L | -2.31% |
| Time open | 2.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m mixed, 15m/1h/4h bull_aligned), 1h ADX 36.8 but slope -8.5 (fading hard), ER-10 0.14 / choppiness 43.4 (path netting nowhere), Hurst 0.42 (mean-reverting), HMM volatile 100% — a bull structure that has stalled and is pulling back, still deeply extended (z +2.29, RV-24h 99th pctile, 4h RSI 69). 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is DOWN (net -3.9%/4h, -5.4%/12h) despite +5.5%/24h — the up-leg is unwinding; taker ratio 0.83 (sellers pressing 1h), OI accelerating_down (-6.5% recent half), funding_momentum negative (unwinding) — the tape is fading, so short the pullback rather than chase a stalled long. 3. THESIS: this echoes the two DOGE losses above (mixed 2/4, ADX fading, extended z) where chasing long lost; the counter-move here is fresh 4h/12h down-momentum plus deleveraging OI and sub-1 taker flow, with only top-trader long-positioning (4.85) as the contra — a crowded long that supplies unwind fuel. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim of ~0.0912 (5d high proximity, breaking above the stalled range) with taker ratio flipping >1 invalidates the fade. 5. LEVELS: stop above the recent stall/reclaim zone at 0.09135; entry 0.089284; target down toward the 12h consolidation shelf at 0.08650 — stop dist ~0.00207, reward ~0.00278, R:R ~1.35, well inside clamps and reachable given avg 24h traversal 3.4%. 6. EXPECTATION: strong-but-fading extended uptrend gives the fade a real edge but the higher-TF bull stack and top-trader longs keep bounce risk elevated.
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