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DOGEUSD short — 17 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.081014 and stopped out at 0.0824 after 12.8 hours, closing at -1.71%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-17 01:38 |
| Entry | 0.081014 |
| Stop-loss | 0.0824 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.079767 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.078935 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.0824 |
| Realized P&L | -1.71% |
| Time open | 12.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed (0/4) but 1h ema_stack bear_aligned with 1h ADX 29.8 (ADX-20 32.5) — a genuine but fading trend (adx_1h_slope -6.6); ER-30 near-zero (0.007) and choppiness 52 say the 30-bar path nets nowhere, Hurst 0.41 mean-reverting, HMM calm — bearish-tilted but chop-degrading tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — 1h bear stack, negative OI (agg -1.33%, decelerating), taker ratio 0.94/1h and last several hourly ratios cooling off; but price is bouncing (net_move_4h +0.58%, 5m/15m ema turning bull) so it's a weak edge. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend + flow — 1h bear stack plus falling OI and sub-1 taker buys align short; total3 -2.8% 5d and total_mcap -4.8% 24h are a macro headwind for alts, and DOGE tracks BTC/ETH which saw ETF outflows. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is already +2.4% off 5d/20d/90d lows with z -1.23 mean-reverting and 5m/15m EMA flipping bull — a continued relief bounce reclaiming ~0.0825 invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.081014; stop_loss 0.08268 above the intraday reclaim/bounce structure (~2.05% risk, ~within 24h range given avg_move_24h 2.11% and rv 52%); take_profit_1 0.07890 (~1.5% below entry, R:R ~0.75)... adjusting to keep R:R>=1: tp1 0.07866 gives reward 1.79% vs risk 2.05% — still short; widen tp toward 5d-low retest. Set tp1 0.07853 (reward 1.94%, risk 2.05%, R:R 0.95). Tighten stop instead: stop 0.08238 (risk 1.69%), tp1 0.07868 (reward 1.65%, R:R ~0.98). Final: stop 0.08240, tp1 0.07850 → risk 1.71%, reward 1.99%, R:R 1.16, both inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: fading trend + active bounce caps conviction; p_tp1 44, p_sl 39, p_expire 17.
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