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DOGEUSD short — 26 Sep 2026 (stopped out)

This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.095965 and stopped out at 0.09775 after 10.7 hours, closing at -1.86%.

AssetDOGEUSD
Directionshort
Issued (UTC)2026-09-26 20:53
Entry0.095965
Stop-loss0.09775
Take-profit 10.094696
Take-profit 2 (stretch)0.09385
Reward:risk at entry1.18
Outcomestopped out
Close price0.09775
Realized P&L-1.86%
Time open10.7 hours

What the model saw at issue time

AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.

1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h EMA bull_aligned but 5m bear/15m mixed (alignment 0/4, mtf mixed, transitional); 1h ADX 15.97 slope -0.47 (weak/fading, near chop); ER-10 0.42 / ER-30 0.13 (path netting little); choppiness 46.6 neutral; Hurst 0.61 persistent; HMM calm 99.97% — a transitional structure now leaning down, -2.6% over 4h. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — near-term momentum is down (net_move_pct_4h -2.61%, 12h -1.95%, 24h -2.01%), OI momentum accelerating_down with oi_5m_z at -4.06 (positions being cut into the fall), delta funding still positive (crowded longs to squeeze). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — accelerating_down OI momentum plus a sharp -4.06 OI z and fresh 4h down-thrust says longs are unwinding; positive delta funding + top-trader pos ratio 4.55 (heavily long) means crowded longs remain vulnerable to continued flush; this is counter to the stale 4h EMA but aligned with live momentum. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m RSI 29 oversold and 1h RSI 38 — a bounce/reclaim above ~0.0975 would invalidate the short as dip-buyers step in. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.095965; stop_loss 0.09775 (above the 4h reclaim/recent consolidation shelf, ~1.86% — within the 8.4% 7d range and reasonable vs atr); take_profit_1 0.09385 stretch toward the 5d-low zone (~2.2% down, RR ~1.19, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors down but oversold RSI risks a bounce and chop keeps expiry live.

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