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DOGEUSD short — 4 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.093094 and stopped out at 0.09425 after 14.7 hours, closing at -1.24%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-04 00:20 |
| Entry | 0.093094 |
| Stop-loss | 0.09425 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.092288 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.09175 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.09425 |
| Realized P&L | -1.24% |
| Time open | 14.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/4h mixed, 15m/1h bear-aligned; 1h ADX 12.7 slope -0.55 (deep chop, fading), ADX-20 13.4, ER-10/30 ~0.31 (noisy path), choppiness 58 range-bound, Hurst 0.33 mean-reverting, HMM calm 99.97% — a low-vol chop with a mild bear tilt and RV at 0.5th percentile (compressed). 2. LEAN CHECK: a modest short lean — 1h/15m EMA bear-aligned, taker 1h 0.80 (sellers dominant), OI accelerating_down, rolling z -1.19 (below mean), net 24h -0.31%; but top-trader position ratio 4.0 is heavily long and funding mildly positive, so the lean is thin. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short on the 15m/1h bear EMA stack plus persistent sub-1.0 taker ratio and accelerating_down OI momentum — supply pressure in a drifting-lower tape. 4. PRE-MORTEM: heavy top-trader long positioning (pos ratio 4.0, rising) plus RV at 0.5th pctile means any reclaim of the 5d-high area or a vol expansion squeezes shorts up. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.093094; stop above recent structure/invalidation at 0.09425 (~1.24% up, within compressed-vol range); target down at 0.09175 (~1.46% down), R:R ~1.18, inside clamps, reachable given avg 24h traversal 1.75%. 6. EXPECTATION: chop with thin edge — p_tp1 42, p_sl 36, p_expire 22.
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