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DOGEUSD short — 15 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on DOGEUSD entered at 0.080478 and stopped out at 0.08215 after 12.2 hours, closing at -2.08%.
| Asset | DOGEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-15 15:05 |
| Entry | 0.080478 |
| Stop-loss | 0.08215 |
| Take-profit 1 | 0.079261 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 0.07845 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 0.08215 |
| Realized P&L | -2.08% |
| Time open | 12.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bearish across 5m/15m/1h/4h, 1h ADX 42.8 slope +2.9 (strong trend, still strengthening), 4h ADX 50.7, choppiness 56.3 (neutral-leaning), ER-10 0.25/ER-30 0.25 (noisy path), Hurst 0.43 mean-reverting, HMM calm 99.97% — a strong, strengthening bear trend but a noisy intraday path. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear short lean — price -2.2% on day, net_move_24h -1.92%, full bear EMA stack, z-score -1.66 (stretched below mean but trend intact). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — full_bearish MTF with ADX 42.8 strengthening on 1h and 50.7 on 4h is the dominant cluster; this asset has a strong short track record in bear_trend (recent same-regime shorts won +2.00/+2.19). 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 2.64 (longs loading, delta +0.17) plus funding deeply negative (z -1.99) and agg_OI +2.4% with oi_momentum accelerating_up — a short-squeeze reclaim above the 5m/15m EMAs (5m RSI 67, already elevated) would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 0.080478; stop above the recent intraday structure / short-term EMA reclaim at 0.08215 (~2.08% risk, ~0.5x the 24h ATR context given rv high); stretch target 0.07845 (~2.9% reward, R:R ~1.4, inside clamps) at the 5d-low vicinity the bear trend points toward. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but counter-flow on positioning and stretched z-score, so moderate conviction with real squeeze risk.
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