ETHUSD long — 29 Jul 2026 (expired)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 1,905.3 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 1,901.7 with a price move of -0.19%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-29 05:18 |
| Entry | 1,905.3 |
| Stop-loss | 1,869 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,935.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,955 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.37 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 1,901.7 |
| Realized P&L | -0.19% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed (2/4), 1h ADX 20.8 (borderline trend) with mildly positive slope but choppiness 60.3 and ER-10 0.18 / ER-30 0.05 scream chop; Hurst 0.52 neutral, calm HMM — this is a range-bound transitional tape, not a trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: subtle upside lean — 4h EMA stack bull_aligned, taker buy/sell 1.18 latest, top-trader position ratio 1.31 (rising +0.06 over 4h), net moves all mildly positive (+0.08/+0.27/+1.27%), fear_greed 29 (contrarian floor). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is the top-trader positioning tilt (account ratio 1.72, pos ratio 1.31 and rising) combined with persistent buy-side taker flow and a bull 4h stack; sitting ~3% off both 5d and 20d highs with sentiment washed out favors a modest long. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI is falling (agg -0.82%, oi_5m_z -1.12, momentum flat) so there's no fresh money confirming the push — a break below the 5d low pivot invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1905.31; stop 1869.0 below the recent swing/5d-low zone (~1.9% risk, beyond the invalidation); stretch TP 1955.0 toward the 5d-high area (~2.6% reward), R:R ~1.35. 6. EXPECTATION: chop regime with weak trend and falling OI caps conviction — p_tp1 41, p_sl 37, p_expire 22.
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