ETHUSD long — 4 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 1,875.7 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 1,878.7 with a price move of +0.16%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-04 12:42 |
| Entry | 1,875.7 |
| Stop-loss | 1,841 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,906.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,927.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 1,878.7 |
| Realized P&L | +0.16% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4, ADX_1h only 13.4 with negative slope, adx_20 10.7, choppiness 59, Hurst 0.43 (mean-reverting), efficiency_ratio 0.16-0.21 — this is chop/high-vol with no clean trend; F&G 25 Extreme Fear. 2. LEAN CHECK: despite chop, near-term flow is up — net moves positive (+1.0% 4h, +1.4% 12h, +1.8% 24h), OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +2.5), top-trader position ratio 1.49 long-skewed, taker 1.11 buy-skewed — a modest bull impulse building; long lean. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI accelerating up with positive net moves and rising funding (funding_momentum +2.2, agg_funding_z +0.67) plus top-trader longs 1.49 and price bouncing +2.2% off 5d low — fresh money is leaning long into a fear-washed tape. 4. PRE-MORTEM: chop regime (ADX 13, Hurst 0.43 mean-reverting) means this bounce fails if price rejects the 5d-high resistance ~2.7% up and rolls back; a break below the 5d-low invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1875.71; stop below recent structure/5d-low buffer at 1841 (~1.85%); stretch TP at 1928 (~2.8%, toward the 5d-high zone), R:R ~1.5. 6. EXPECTATION: chop tape with modest bull impulse — p_tp1 39, p_sl 42, p_expire 19.
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