ETHUSD long — 5 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 1,916.4 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 1,910 with a price move of -0.34%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-05 18:07 |
| Entry | 1,916.4 |
| Stop-loss | 1,888.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,938.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,953 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.31 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 1,910 |
| Realized P&L | -0.34% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (2/4), 5m/15m EMA bull-aligned but 1h/4h mixed, ADX_1h 13.3 (chop) though slope +5.6 (strengthening), Hurst 0.28 (mean-reverting), choppiness 37.8 (trending edge), ER-10 0.69, HMM calm — a low-ADX chop tape with a fresh upward impulse just building. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean — net moves strongly positive (+2.10% 4h, +2.44% 12h, +2.13% 24h), taker 1.35 buy-skewed with rising last-3 (1.14/1.28/1.35), OI accelerating_up with 5m/15m z ~+3.5, top-trader pos ratio 1.43 long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is flow — accelerating_up OI (+2.3% agg, oi_z +3.6) alongside buy-skewed takers and a sharp +2.1% 4h push confirms fresh long money entering as price presses the 5d high (-0.08%); trend-aligned with the lower-TF bull EMA stack. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI overbought across all TFs (5m 72, 15m 74, 1h 74) plus rolling z +1.25 and ETH's own weak 30d track record (wr 42%) — a failure to clear the 5d high and reversion off overbought would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 1916.41; invalidation below the recent consolidation shelf, stop at 1888.5 (~1.46%, within rv_24h/atr band); stretch TP at 1953.0 (~1.91%, ~1.3x stop distance, R:R ~1.31) targeting a push through the 5d/20d high cluster. 6. EXPECTATION: fresh flow favors continuation but overbought + chop regime caps conviction and raises expire odds.
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