ETHUSD long — 7 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 1,930.6 and stopped out at 1,907.5 after 4.3 hours, closing at -1.20%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-07 12:42 |
| Entry | 1,930.6 |
| Stop-loss | 1,907.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,947.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,958.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,907.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.20% |
| Time open | 4.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks bull), but 1h/4h ADX weak (17.9/12.1) with a positive slope (+5.17), Hurst 0.33 (mean-reverting), choppiness 37 (borderline-trending), ER-10 0.65 clean short-term but ER-30 0.14 nets nowhere — a bull structure with reawakening but shallow trend energy, F&G 29 Fear. 2. LEAN CHECK: long lean — full bull EMA stack, positive net moves (+1.09% 4h, +1.71% 24h), OI accelerating_up with huge 5m/15m z (+4.28), top-trader position ratio 1.33 long, taker 1.19 buy-skewed. 3. THESIS: strongest cluster is flow — OI accelerating_up (agg +2.4%, oi_5m_z +4.28) into a rising price with top-traders positioned long and buy-side taker skew, all trend-aligned with the 4/4 bull EMA stack. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits at 5d/20d/90d highs (dist_from_extrema all +0.00) with 1h RSI 71.6 overbought and rolling z +1.99 — an exhaustion rejection off this high invalidates. 5. LEVELS: mark 1930.62; stop below the reclaimed intraday shelf at 1907.5 (~1.2% risk, ~0.5x rv_24h, structural); stretch TP at 1958.5 (~1.44% reward, ~1.2x stop distance, inside clamps) toward continuation extension. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought at highs caps follow-through; modest edge from flow+trend.
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