ETHUSD long — 8 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 1,922.5 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 1,923 with a price move of +0.02%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-08 14:38 |
| Entry | 1,922.5 |
| Stop-loss | 1,899.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,938.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,949 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.15 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 1,923 |
| Realized P&L | +0.02% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bullish 4/4, ADX_1h 28.9 rising (slope +1.84) — a genuine trend, unusual for ETH which has been chop-drift lately; Hurst 0.37 (mean-reverting caveat), choppiness 50.6 borderline, RV at 2nd pctile (very compressed), F&G 30 Fear. 2. LEAN CHECK: long lean — full bull EMA stack plus real ADX energy this time, unlike the prior chop-with-tilt setups. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend+flow confluence — OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +1.65, oi_15m_z +1.63), taker 1.56 buy-skewed with rising cadence, top-trader pos ratio 1.32 long, all trend-aligned into a rising-ADX bull stack near the 5d/20d/90d high (only -0.45% below). 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits at 90d high with rolling z +1.52 (extended) and Hurst mean-reverting — a rejection off the high flushing back below ~1908 invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent structure/z-mean at 1899.4 (dist ~1.2%, ~0.7x rv_24h daily range — reasonable); stretch target at 1949.0 (~1.38% up, RR ~1.13, inside clamps) toward a breakout continuation above the 90d high. 6. EXPECTATION: compressed vol + real trend favor continuation but extension near highs and ETH's weak track record temper it.
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