ETHUSD long — 19 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,123.4 and hit its target at 2,160.5 after 23 minutes, closing at +1.75%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-19 20:27 |
| Entry | 2,123.4 |
| Stop-loss | 2,088 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,145.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,160.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.05 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,160.5 |
| Realized P&L | +1.75% |
| Time open | 23 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), ADX_1h 55.6 slope +6.3 (very strong trend strengthening), choppiness 21.6 and ER-10 0.96 (extremely clean one-way tape), HMM calm — but Hurst 0.31 (mean-reverting), rolling z +6.2, RV 24h at 98th pctile, price pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs: a violent, extended bull impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — trend, momentum, OI all point up; no coherent short case beyond exhaustion. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — full MTF bull stack + accelerating_up OI (oi_5m_z +2.14, agg_oi +13%) + top-trader pos ratio 1.40 confirm fresh money chasing the +11% 24h breakout; recent same-regime signals repeatedly won. 4. PRE-MORTEM: extreme extension (RSI 93 on 1h, z +6.2, taker 1h 0.91 fading) means a sharp mean-reversion pullback could hit stop before continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2123.41; stop below the last minor 1h swing/breakout retest at 2088 (~1.67% risk, ~1.5x atr_pct_1h * a few bars, within realized range); stretch target 2158 (~1.63% reward, R:R ~0.98 — nudge target to 2160 for R:R ~1.03), a clean extension level reachable given avg_move 24h stretched. 6. EXPECTATION: extended but powerful trend, elevated pullback risk.
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