ETHUSD long — 20 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,229.8 and hit its target at 2,265.9 after 3.6 hours, closing at +1.62%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-20 03:12 |
| Entry | 2,229.8 |
| Stop-loss | 2,178 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,265.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,290 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,265.9 |
| Realized P&L | +1.62% |
| Time open | 3.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish (4/4 EMA stacks), ADX_1h 68.9 slope +3.7 (extremely strong trend still strengthening), choppiness 21.2 + ER-30 0.63 (clean one-way tape), Hurst 0.56 (mildly trending), HMM volatile high-conf — a violent but genuine bull trend after +16.9% 24h. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — trend, OI (+15.4% 24h) and top-trader positioning (pos ratio 1.40) all point up; extension is the only caution, not a short case. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — 4/4 EMA stack, ADX ~69 rising, positive agg OI delta +14% and top-trader long tilt confirm real conviction driving the move; funding z +2.2 is crowded but not yet extreme. 4. PRE-MORTEM: rolling z +4.3, RSI 75-87 on 1h/4h, RV_24h at 100th pctile and net -1.08% 4h momentum suggests a violent mean-revert pullback could hit any long from near the highs. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2229.79; stop below the recent intraday shelf at 2178 (~2.3% risk, ~0.5x the 4.6% avg daily range — appropriate given extension); stretch TP at 2290 (~2.7% / ~1.17x stop distance), a reachable push toward the 5d high given 4h ATR ~2%. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend favors continuation but extreme extension + fresh 4h fade raise pullback odds.
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