ETHUSD long — 26 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,466.1 and hit its target at 2,505.6 after 19.6 hours, closing at +1.60%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-26 02:28 |
| Entry | 2,466.1 |
| Stop-loss | 2,412 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,505.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,532 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,505.6 |
| Realized P&L | +1.60% |
| Time open | 19.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 — 1h/4h EMA stacks bull_aligned (4h ADX towering 45/RSI 59), but 5m mixed and 15m bear_aligned; ADX_1h 26.3 slope +0.63 (genuine trend, mildly strengthening); ER-10 0.04 / ER-30 0.03 / choppiness 52.7 — a real HTF bull structure sitting on a very low-efficiency, near-directionless near-term path; Hurst 0.58, HMM calm. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided — HTF bull structure and top-trader position ratio 1.75 (heavily long) argue up, but near-term flow is bruised: price -2.5% 24h, OI down 3.2% and decelerating, oi_15m_z -0.80, agg_oi -1.64, funding_z negative/unwinding, sitting -2.2% under 5d/20d/90d highs (rolled over from top). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest confluence is the modest recovery lean — most recent taker ratios (1.25, 1.27) turned buy-heavy at the bottom of a 24h dip, 4h EMA stack still bull_aligned with high 4h ADX, top traders positioned long 1.75, and this asset's regime priors favor buying dips within intact HTF bull; ETH ETF still net inflow. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a clean break below the 5d low (~2333, +5.4% below) or continued OI decline with taker ratio flipping back sub-1 kills the bounce thesis — this is a low-efficiency tape where longs have repeatedly hit stops (3 recent chop-regime SL losses). 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2466.07; stop_loss 2412.00 below the recent intraday shelf (2.19% ≈ 0.5x rv_24h span, structural invalidation of the bounce); take_profit_1 2532.00 targeting reclaim toward the 5d high shelf (2.67%, R:R ≈ 1.22, inside clamps, reachable within avg 24h traversal 4.0%). 6. EXPECTATION: choppy low-ER tape and prior loss history temper this — p_tp1 39 / p_sl 37 / p_expire 24.
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