ETHUSD long — 30 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,473.2 and hit its target at 2,517.5 after 2.4 hours, closing at +1.79%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-30 13:53 |
| Entry | 2,473.2 |
| Stop-loss | 2,436.8 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,499.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,517.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,517.5 |
| Realized P&L | +1.79% |
| Time open | 2.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (5m/15m/4h bull EMA, 1h bear), 1h ADX 22 slope +3.4 (strengthening), ADX-20 14 (weak), ER-10 0.45/choppiness 54.9, Hurst 0.32 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a choppy tape inside a nominally-intact broader bull structure, RV in bottom ~2 pctile (very quiet, coiled). 2. LEAN CHECK: mild long lean — near-term momentum up (net +0.84% 4h, +1.59% 24h), OI accelerating_up with strong 5m/15m z (+2.5/+2.2), top-trader position ratio 1.65 long, taker 1.20, ETH ETF net inflow +$102M vs BTC outflow. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow/OI cluster is the strongest — accelerating OI on rising price with buy-side taker skew and heavy top-trader long positioning, aligned with the 4h/5m/15m bull EMA and ETH-specific ETF inflow tailwind. 4. PRE-MORTEM: sits -2.39% under 5d/20d/90d highs and 1h EMA is bear-stacked with Hurst mean-reverting — a rejection here reverts the coil down instead of breaking out. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2473.25, stop below the 5d-low structure / recent swing at 2436.8 (~1.47%, within 24h avg range 1.51%), stretch target at 2517.5 (~1.79%, ~1.2x stop distance, toward the 5d-high cluster). 6. EXPECTATION: quiet coiled tape with modest long confluence but overhead supply and mean-reverting Hurst — meaningful expire probability.
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