ETHUSD long — 9 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,488.3 and stopped out at 2,453 after 4.9 hours, closing at -1.42%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-09 15:33 |
| Entry | 2,488.3 |
| Stop-loss | 2,453 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,509.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,524 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.01 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,453 |
| Realized P&L | -1.42% |
| Time open | 4.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment "mixed" 0/4 (5m/15m mixed, 1h+4h bull EMA), 1h ADX 14.4 slope +0.47 (weak), ADX-20 10.3, ER-10 0.076/ER-30 0.012, choppiness 62 (range-bound), Hurst 0.47 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a low-ADX chop tape with faint HTF bull structure. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but a modest long lean survives — 1h/4h EMA bull_aligned, top-traders positioned long (pos ratio 1.63, account ratio 1.27), OI momentum accelerating_up, funding mildly positive; opposing it: all net moves negative (-0.49% 4h, -0.41% 24h) and taker ratio <1 (0.955). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the HTF EMA stack (1h+4h bull) plus top-trader long positioning and accelerating OI form the strongest cluster; price sits just -1.5% below 5d/20d/90d highs and +4.9% above 20d low — the structure favors mean-reversion back toward the highs from a shallow pullback. 4. PRE-MORTEM: sustained taker selling (ratio staying <1) with OI unwinding would confirm distribution and break the long thesis. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent pullback swing / near 5d-low proximity at 2452.0 (~1.46% risk, within the ~1.6% typical 24h traversal and RV band); stretch target at 2523.0 (~1.39% reward, ~5d-high area), R:R ~0.95→bump target slightly to keep R:R ≥1.0. Adjust: stop 2451.0 (risk 1.50%), TP 2524.0 (reward 1.43%), R:R 0.96 — tighten stop to 2453.0 (risk 1.42%), TP 2524.0 gives R:R 1.01. 6. EXPECTATION: chop regime, weak trend, thin edge — modest tilt.
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