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ETHUSD long — 20 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,630.9 and hit its target at 2,688 after 4.3 hours, closing at +2.17%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-20 19:55 |
| Entry | 2,630.9 |
| Stop-loss | 2,585.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,665.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,688 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.26 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,688 |
| Realized P&L | +2.17% |
| Time open | 4.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h/4h EMA all bull-aligned (mtf label "mixed" but stack is bullish across TFs), 1h ADX 33.4 slope -0.15 (strong but flat), ER-10 0.54 / ER-30 0.03 (recent path decent, longer-horizon nets nowhere), choppiness 41.8 (mid-range), Hurst 0.59 (mildly trending), HMM calm 0.999 — a bull stack that has stalled just under the 5d/20d/90d high with net_move_24h flat. 2. LEAN CHECK: fresh +2.15% 12h and +0.74% 4h momentum, OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +0.90, oi_change_recent_half +1.78%), top-trader position ratio 1.56 long-tilted — modest but coherent long lean. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — full bull EMA stack plus accelerating OI and long-tilted top traders on renewed 12h impulse, price pressing the 5d/20d/90d high (dist -0.69%), a break of which opens continuation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: rolling z +1.63 and RV at 81st/96th pctile mean the move is stretched; a rejection at the high with OI unwind (top_trader 4h delta -0.027) would flush it back. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2630.90, stop 2585.5 below the recent consolidation shelf (~1.73% risk, within the 4.6% 7d range), stretch TP 2688.0 at the extension above the 5d high (~2.17% reward, R:R ~1.26, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but stretched near resistance in mid-chop, per-asset wr 56.5% — p_tp1 44, p_sl 38, p_expire 18.
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