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ETHUSD long — 26 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,685.9 and hit its target at 2,714.8 after 17.7 hours, closing at +1.07%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-26 14:08 |
| Entry | 2,685.9 |
| Stop-loss | 2,646.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,714.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,734 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,714.8 |
| Realized P&L | +1.07% |
| Time open | 17.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull-aligned but 1h/15m mixed and 5m bear (alignment 2/4, mtf mixed, regime chop_low_vol); 1h ADX 9.8 (deep chop), ER-10 0.09 / ER-30 0.03 (path nets nowhere), choppiness 63.5 (range-bound), Hurst 0.60, HMM calm 1.0, RV 24h at 0th percentile — a dead low-vol range, not a trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but a thin long lean survives — top-trader pos ratio 1.64 (crowded long), funding modestly positive (agg z 0.61) and ETF eth +$87M inflow give a mild upward tilt, while flow (taker 0.867, OI -1.2%/-0.7% agg, decelerating) leans soft; net near-flat 24h/4h. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: single credible cluster is positioning — top-trader position ratio 1.64 with 4h delta +0.018 (accumulating longs) plus fresh ETF inflows and 4h bull EMA stack; this is a range-long off the lower band of a low-vol coil, not a trend chase. 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker ratio persistently sub-1 with OI decelerating means sellers control the tape — a break below the 5d-low zone (~2640) invalidates the range-long. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2685.88; stop 2646.5 below the 5d-low / range floor (~1.46% risk, ~0.8x rv_24h — inside width rule); take_profit_1 2734.0 stretch at range mid/upper (~1.79% reward, R:R ~1.22, inside 1.5x and 4% clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: chop range in dead vol favors mean-reversion but low conviction; p_tp1 40, p_sl 33, p_expire 27.
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