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ETHUSD long — 29 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,725.1 and stopped out at 2,684 after 7 hours, closing at -1.51%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-29 08:23 |
| Entry | 2,725.1 |
| Stop-loss | 2,684 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,757.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,779 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.31 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,684 |
| Realized P&L | -1.51% |
| Time open | 7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull-aligned, 5m/15m bull-aligned but overbought (RSI 78-80), 1h mixed; alignment 4/4 but mtf labeled mixed/transitional; 1h ADX 15.4 (weak, slope +0.03 flat), ER-10 0.39/ER-30 0.24 (moderately noisy), choppiness 46 (mid), Hurst 0.50 (random walk), HMM calm — a fresh low-conviction bullish push riding a +2.2% 4h/+2.9% 24h impulse, more momentum-pop than clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean — price at 5d high (0.0% from it), strong recent momentum, OI accelerating up (oi_5m_z +4.27, momentum accelerating_up), top-traders positioned long (pos ratio 1.56), ETF velocity 1.26x with $17M ETH inflow, greed 73. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — the dominant cluster is flow/OI (aggressive OI build +5% 24h, accelerating_up, top-trader pos ratio 1.56 long) coinciding with a fresh breakout to 5d highs, backed by rising funding z 1.42 and positive ETF flow; near-term momentum firmly up. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 78-80 on 5m/15m is overbought at a 5d high with Hurst ~0.50 and low ADX — a rejection here reverts the whole pop, so failure to hold above ~2695 invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2725.13; stop below the recent breakout base at 2684 (~1.51% risk, within the ~1.5% 24h realized range), target the stretch toward 2779 (~1.98% reward, R:R ~1.3, inside 4% clamp) — a push into fresh territory above the 5d high. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought at highs tempers the long; p_tp1 44, p_sl 38, p_expire 18.
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