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ETHUSD long — 2 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,720.4 and stopped out at 2,681.5 after 2.6 hours, closing at -1.43%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-02 14:35 |
| Entry | 2,720.4 |
| Stop-loss | 2,681.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,750.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,770 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.27 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,681.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.43% |
| Time open | 2.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/15m/1h EMA bull-aligned but alignment only 2/4 (mtf mixed), 1h ADX 33.5 slope +3.7 (trend-y on 1h) yet ER-30 0.13, choppiness 51, Hurst 0.21 (strongly mean-reverting), HMM calm — a bull-tilted tape with a trend-building 1h but weak follow-through and mean-reverting character. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean — EMA stack bullish on higher TFs, OI accelerating_up, top-trader positioning long, but near-term 4h momentum is negative. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is positioning/flow — oi_momentum accelerating_up (oi_15m_z +1.07, agg_oi +3.8%, OI +5.8% 24h), top_trader_pos_ratio 1.54 long and rising (4h chg +0.0083), funding mildly positive building (z 1.39) — buyers adding into a bull-aligned higher-TF structure, trend-aligned. 4. PRE-MORTEM: net_move_4h -0.82% and taker 0.93 (sell-heavy last hour) show fresh selling; a loss of the ~2690 5d-low shelf (price +3% off it) and reclaim-failure would invalidate the long. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2720.44; stop below the recent swing/invalidation at 2681.5 (~1.43% / ~0.4x the 24h rv range, structural); stretch TP at 2770.0 (~1.82% up, R:R ~1.27, inside 1.5x and 4% clamps) toward the 5d-high area at -1.24% then extension. 6. EXPECTATION: Hurst mean-reverting + mixed alignment temper upside; honest distribution favors a slight long edge with meaningful expire odds.
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