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ETHUSD long — 3 Oct 2026 (expired)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,682.4 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,699.9 with a price move of +0.65%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-03 18:50 |
| Entry | 2,682.4 |
| Stop-loss | 2,645 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,712.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,733 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.35 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,699.9 |
| Realized P&L | +0.65% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 2/4 (mixed), 1h EMA mixed with ADX only 10 (ADX-20 8.8), ER-10 0.02 / ER-30 0.44, choppiness 62.7 (range-bound), Hurst 0.32 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 1.0 — a low-vol chop with no clean trend, 24h RV at 0.5th percentile (dead tape). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean — top-trader pos ratio 1.58 and account ratio 1.62 (positioned long), OI rising +1.76% with oi_15m_z +1.02, taker 1.41 buy-heavy and most-recent hourly bucket 1.41 confirming near-term buy pressure, 4h EMA bull-aligned, F&G 67 Greed. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the flow cluster — fresh buy-side taker pressure + accumulating OI + top-traders net long + bullish 4h EMA stack — tilts long in an otherwise directionless range; this is a modest trend-aligned-on-HTF lean, not a breakout. 4. PRE-MORTEM: ETH is 2.6% below 5d/20d/90d high with ETF outflows ($17.3M) and total mcap -4.2% 24h — a failure to push through nearby resistance flips this into another range fade. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2682.43; stop below the 5d-low shelf / recent consolidation at 2645.0 (~1.4% risk, within the ~2.8% 7d daily range given dead RV); stretch TP at 2733.0 (~1.9% / ~1.37x the stop distance), reaching back toward the 5d-high zone, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: chop with a thin flow lean — modest p_tp1 edge, meaningful expire given dead low-vol tape.
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