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ETHUSD long — 5 Oct 2026 (expired)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,717.5 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,698 with a price move of -0.72%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-05 22:05 |
| Entry | 2,717.5 |
| Stop-loss | 2,673 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,747.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,767 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.11 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,698 |
| Realized P&L | -0.72% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: EMA stack bull-aligned on 15m/1h/4h (alignment 4/4) but 1h ADX 15.5 slope -2.77 (fading), ADX-20 14.7, ER-10 0.12, ER-30 0.08, choppiness 45, Hurst 0.33 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a bull-labeled EMA structure sitting inside directionless, low-conviction chop. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean — EMA unanimity on higher TFs plus top-trader positioning favor up, offsetting a decaying OI. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is positioning — top_trader_pos_ratio 1.67 (account 1.45), building (+0.019 over 4h) while funding sits mildly negative (funding_z -0.35, agg_funding_z -0.11) — smart money positioned long into a bull EMA stack with no crowding; price sits just 1.3% below the 90d high. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.12, oi_15m_z -1.29, agg_oi -0.50%) and net_move_24h -0.45% — if OI unwind continues it drains the move and this fades back into chop or lower. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2717.51; stop below the recent intraday pivot / 5d-low cushion at 2673 (~1.64% stop, ~0.56x rv_24h, reasonable); stretch target toward the 90d/5d high retest at 2767 (~1.84% up, R:R ~1.12). 6. EXPECTATION: given chop regime, ETH's weak 50.6% track record and fading ADX, modest edge — p_tp1 46, p_sl 38, p_expire 16.
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