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ETHUSD long — 9 Oct 2026 (expired)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,507.2 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,496.8 with a price move of -0.42%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-09 11:50 |
| Entry | 2,507.2 |
| Stop-loss | 2,461 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,538.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,560 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,496.8 |
| Realized P&L | -0.42% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Mixed/transitional — mtf_alignment 0/4 (5m bull, 15m mixed, 1h bear, 4h mixed), 1h ADX 31.6 but slope -5.4 (fading hard), choppiness 51 (neutral), ER-30 0.16 (noisy net-nowhere), Hurst 0.46 (mild mean-revert), HMM calm; the clean bear trend that recent winning shorts rode has clearly decayed. 2. LEAN CHECK: slight long lean — price is deeply oversold (rolling z -1.9, net_move_24h -1.14%, +3.8% off every low but -8-9% below highs), 1h ADX collapsing suggests bear exhaustion, and short-term momentum is turning up (net_move_4h +0.18%, net_move_12h +1.35%, 5m EMA bull-aligned, taker history flipped buy-heavy mid-window). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is a counter-trend oversold bounce — funding deeply negative (funding_z -1.21, agg_funding_z -1.11) with longs liquidated-out and top-traders still net-long (pos ratio 1.66, account ratio 2.09), OI accelerating_up on recent half (+0.94%, oi_momentum accelerating_up) while bear momentum fades; classic squeeze-the-shorts setup after extension. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a decisive 1h close back below the 5d low with ADX re-accelerating would confirm trend continuation down and invalidate the bounce. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2507.23; stop below recent swing/5d-low cushion at 2461 (-1.84%, ~0.75x the 84.9% annualized rv range, structural invalidation); stretch TP at 2560 (+2.10%), the 15m/1h resistance confluence, R:R ~1.14, inside clamps and reachable within 24h given avg_move_24h 1.6%. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold bounces off faded trends resolve either way; modest edge, meaningful expire risk from chop.
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