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ETHUSD long — 10 Oct 2026 (expired)
This long on ETHUSD entered at 2,497 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,504 with a price move of +0.28%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-10 11:50 |
| Entry | 2,497 |
| Stop-loss | 2,460.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,525.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,545 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.31 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,504 |
| Realized P&L | +0.28% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Chop_low_vol — mtf_alignment mixed 0/4, 1h ADX 11.2 (slope -2.1, fading, deep chop), choppiness 50.2, ER-30 0.05 (nets nowhere), Hurst 0.49 (random walk), RV 24h at 15th pctile (vol compressed), HMM calm; no genuine trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly two-sided but a thin long lean exists — OI accelerating_up (oi_15m_z +1.18, oi_change_recent_half +0.65%), taker_1h 1.098 (buy-tilted), top-trader pos ratio 1.70 and account ratio 2.18 (both long-heavy), price z -1.49 (stretched down, mean-revert bias), SPX +0.59% / VIX -3.7% risk-on. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI building into a buy-tilted tape with price stretched -1.49z below 20d mean and 4h RSI 36 — a reversion-up lean supported by top-trader long positioning and risk-on macro; 4h ADX 44 is the only trending TF but its direction is bear so this is a counter-fade of a stalled move, hence lower conf. 4. PRE-MORTEM: ETH ETF net outflow $56M and ETH underperforming (btc.d 59%, total3 -1.96%) — if the macro bleed resumes, the bounce fails and price breaks the 5d low. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2497.03; stop below the recent swing / 5d-low proximity at 2460.5 (~1.46%, inside 1x RV range); stretch TP at 2545 (~1.92%, R:R ~1.3) toward the mid-range reversion level, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: thin edge in chop — modest p_tp1, meaningful p_expire given low vol.
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