ETHUSD short — 27 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,884.8 and stopped out at 1,928 after 17.8 hours, closing at -2.29%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-27 23:03 |
| Entry | 1,884.8 |
| Stop-loss | 1,928 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,849.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,826 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.36 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,928 |
| Realized P&L | -2.29% |
| Time open | 17.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed (0/4) with 5m bear, 1h/4h bull EMA stacks, 1h ADX 32.5 but slope negative (-1.8, fading), choppiness 40.5, Hurst ~0.48 neutral, funding mildly positive/unwinding — an active down-leg (net -3.5% 24h) inside a decaying higher-TF trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: momentum is decisively down (net_move -3.16% 4h, -3.75% 12h), OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -3.9, agg_oi -5.3%), but RSI is deeply oversold across all TFs (5m 7.6, 15m 17.5, 1h 29.9) at the 5d/20d/90d low — this is a capitulation flush, not a clean short entry; leaning short with the flow but respecting bounce risk. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is the down-flow — OI accelerating_down with deeply negative 5m/15m z-scores, falling latest taker (0.64), and continuous negative net moves confirm sellers control; top-trader long ratio 1.29 is a crowded-long that can still unwind lower. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 7.6 on 5m at the 90d low with efficiency_ratio_30 collapsed to 0.11 means an oversold mean-reversion bounce could snap price back above 1920, invalidating the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1884.75, stop above the recent breakdown shelf and bounce zone at 1928 (beyond the oversold-reversal risk), TP at 1826 targeting the next support extension — risk ~43, reward ~59, R:R ~1.35. 6. EXPECTATION: strong down-momentum but severe oversold caps follow-through and raises expire/bounce odds.
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