ETHUSD short — 29 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,884 and stopped out at 1,908.5 after 1.1 hours, closing at -1.30%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-29 04:03 |
| Entry | 1,884 |
| Stop-loss | 1,908.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,864.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,852 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.31 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,908.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.30% |
| Time open | 1.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed (2/4), 1h ADX ~20 with barely positive slope, choppiness 63.7 (range-bound), ER-30 0.03 (nets nowhere), Hurst 0.52 neutral, HMM calm — this is chop/transitional, not a clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is down (net -1.70%/4h, -2.13%/12h) with OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.92, agg_oi -1.11%) and taker 0.86 sell-tilted — a modest short lean into the fresh selloff, but 5m/15m RSI deeply oversold (28-30) and 4h EMA bull-aligned argue for a bounce; net slightly short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is OI accelerating_down while price sells off with sell-side takers — bear-aligned distribution consistent with prior winning ETH short in the same OI-momentum pattern; funding still positive (agg z 0.78) means longs haven't fully capitulated, leaving downside fuel. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold 5m/15m RSI (27-30) plus 4h bull stack means an oversold-bounce reclaim above ~1900 would invalidate the continuation short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1884.01, stop 1908.5 (above the recent 4h swing / reclaim zone, ~1.30%), take_profit_1 1852.0 (stretch toward the 5d-low area, ~1.70% = ~1.3x risk, within 24h avg traversal of 1.85%). 6. EXPECTATION: chop + oversold bounce risk caps conviction — p_tp1 40, p_sl 38, p_expire 22.
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