ETHUSD short — 2 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,853.9 and stopped out at 1,882.5 after 6.7 hours, closing at -1.54%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-02 12:00 |
| Entry | 1,853.9 |
| Stop-loss | 1,882.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,830 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,814 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.40 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,882.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.54% |
| Time open | 6.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 15m/1h EMA stacks bear_aligned, 5m/4h mixed, ADX_1h 23.6 but slope negative (-0.40, fading), Hurst 0.495 (random walk), choppiness 44, F&G 27 (Fear) — a modest bear lean that is losing momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: net moves negative (4h -0.72%, 24h -0.78%), OI bleeding (-2.4% Delta, agg -2.37%), funding positive/crowded-long (z +0.71, momentum building) — flow favors the short side; but 5m/15m RSI deeply oversold (25/28) near the 5d/20d low, so this is a tired short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — lower-TF bear EMA stacks, negative momentum, positive funding + crowded top-traders (pos ratio 1.46) that can unwind lower, price rejecting from 5d high (-3.9%) and grinding down with falling OI. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold 5m/15m RSI at the 20d low (+0.97% away) could snap a reclaim bounce; a reclaim of ~1875 with momentum invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent swing/pivot at 1882 (beyond a reclaim); TP1 stretch toward the next support shelf near 1815, span ~2.1% vs risk ~1.5% for R:R ~1.4, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 1.68% and RV pctile 62. 6. EXPECTATION: modest fading bear trend at oversold extreme — p_tp1 44, p_sl 37, p_expire 19.
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