ETHUSD short — 4 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,855.1 and stopped out at 1,878 after 5.9 hours, closing at -1.23%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-04 06:45 |
| Entry | 1,855.1 |
| Stop-loss | 1,878 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,837.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,825 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.32 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 1,878 |
| Realized P&L | -1.23% |
| Time open | 5.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (2/4), 1h EMA bear_aligned but 4h mixed, ADX_1h 13.4 and falling (slope -1.97), Hurst 0.46, choppiness 63 — this is chop, not a trend, with F&G 25 (Extreme Fear). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest bearish lean — 1h bear stack, negative net moves (-0.54% 4h, -0.68% 12h), taker ratio 0.80 sell-skewed, OI accelerating_down with 5m/15m z near -1.1; but ADX sub-15 and z_score -1.16 (already stretched below mean) temper conviction. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short-side flow is coherent — falling OI, sell-skewed takers, 1h bear EMA, and this asset's own 30d record leans short (43% WR short vs 34% long); the near-term momentum cluster points down. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is already z=-1.16 below its 20d mean and near 20d low (+1.06% off), so an oversold reclaim bounce in Extreme Fear would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 1855.14, stop above recent intraday structure at 1878 (~1.23%), stretch TP at 1825 (~1.63%, near the 20d-low retest region), R:R ~1.32. 6. EXPECTATION: chop regime with weak ADX caps edge; oversold condition raises bounce risk and expiry odds.
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