ETHUSD short — 10 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 1,895.8 and hit its target at 1,880 after 1.4 hours, closing at +0.83%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-10 13:53 |
| Entry | 1,895.8 |
| Stop-loss | 1,918.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 1,880 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 1,869.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 1,880 |
| Realized P&L | +0.83% |
| Time open | 1.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (2/4) — 5m/15m bear-aligned and oversold (RSI ~24), 1h EMA mixed, 4h still bull-aligned; ADX_1h 25.8 but slope -2.05 (fading), Hurst 0.18 (strongly mean-reverting), choppiness 57 — a fading-trend/chop structure with a fresh downward impulse, F&G 30 Fear. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean on near-term momentum (net -1.11% 4h, -1.58% 12h, price pinned at 5d/20d low, -1.9% from highs), but 4h bull stack and top-trader position ratio 1.33 long temper it — two-sided but the fresh downside momentum wins the tiebreak. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short — the strongest cluster is structure+momentum: price is at the 5d/20d/90d low with negative net moves across all horizons and OI accelerating_up into the down move (new shorts / longs trapped), Hurst 0.18 favors continuation of the mean-reverting flush lower rather than a bounce yet. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m/15m RSI ~24 oversold + 4h still bull-aligned means a reflexive bounce off the low reclaiming ~1905 invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent swing/1h structure at 1918.4 (beyond the ~1905 reclaim level), stop distance ~1.19%; TP1 stretch at 1869.5, ~1.38% below entry, ~1.16x the stop distance and just under the next support extension — inside clamps and reachable given avg 24h traversal ~0.72% but recent net moves running larger (~1.5%). 6. EXPECTATION: fresh momentum favors continuation but oversold risk of bounce and low-vol expiry are real.
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