ETHUSD short — 25 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,427 and stopped out at 2,461.5 after 5.1 hours, closing at -1.42%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-25 21:13 |
| Entry | 2,427 |
| Stop-loss | 2,461.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,398.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,379 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.39 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,461.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.42% |
| Time open | 5.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 0/4 — 5m/15m bear_aligned, 1h/4h bull_aligned; ADX_1h 23.7 slope +3.99 (strengthening), 4h ADX 47 but that lags; ER-30 0.22 / choppiness 49.4, Hurst 0.57, HMM calm — a transitional tape with fresh near-term downside inside a bruised HTF bull structure. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term flow is decisively bearish — net_move_4h/12h/24h all negative, price -2.27% on the day, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -4.2, oi_15m_z -2.94, agg_oi -3.13%), taker ratio 0.651 latest hour heavily sell-side — lean short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow/OI cluster dominates — OI bleeding hard as price falls (longs unwinding, not fresh shorts), latest taker prints sub-0.65 sell-heavy, and 15m RSI 27 oversold-but-still-falling; short aligns with the fresh momentum break even against a fading HTF bull. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m RSI 27 oversold + top-trader pos ratio 1.78 long-heavy could trigger a reflex bounce reclaiming ~2450, invalidating the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2426.96; stop above the reclaim/recent structure at 2461.5 (~1.42% risk, within the ~4% ADR/rv band); target the 5d-low zone / continuation at 2379 (~1.98% reward, R:R ~1.4, inside clamps) — reachable given avg 24h traversal 4.0%. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold reflex risk and long-heavy top traders raise bounce odds.
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