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ETHUSD short — 9 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,466.7 and hit its target at 2,434.8 after 16.1 hours, closing at +1.29%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-09 20:33 |
| Entry | 2,466.7 |
| Stop-loss | 2,508.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,434.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,413.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.27 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,434.8 |
| Realized P&L | +1.29% |
| Time open | 16.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed 2/4 (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h mixed, 4h bull), 1h ADX 15.2 slope +2.1 (weak), ADX-20 10.5, ER-10 0.23/ER-30 0.08, choppiness 52, Hurst 0.47, HMM calm 0.999 — a low-ADX chop tape with a fresh short-frame bear tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but a modest short lean survives — all recent net moves negative (-1.13% 4h, -2.07% 12h), OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.23), taker ratio 0.84 (sellers dominant), sitting near 5d high (-2.07%). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow cluster favors short — OI unwinding hard (agg_oi -0.79%, oi_change_recent_half -5.08%, accelerating_down) alongside sub-1 taker ratio and negative funding z (-0.78) shows longs bleeding out while 5m/15m EMA are bear-aligned. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-traders lean long (pos ratio 1.59) and 4h EMA still bull-aligned — a reclaim of ~2490 would flip the short-frame momentum and invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2466.74; stop above the 5d-high pivot / recent swing at 2508.5 (~1.69% risk, within rv range); stretch target down at 2413.5 (~2.16% reward, ~1.28x risk, inside clamps) at the 5d-low retest region. 6. EXPECTATION: chop tape with a short lean — modest edge, meaningful expire probability given low ADX.
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