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ETHUSD short — 10 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,437.8 and stopped out at 2,465.5 after 6.5 hours, closing at -1.14%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-10 23:18 |
| Entry | 2,437.8 |
| Stop-loss | 2,465.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,419.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,408 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.07 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,465.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.14% |
| Time open | 6.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bear, 1h mixed, 4h bull), 1h ADX 24.5 slope -0.44 (fading), ADX-20 19.9, ER-10 0.068/ER-30 0.22 (noisy path netting nowhere), choppiness 49.4, Hurst 0.43 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a low-efficiency chop tape with a fresh short-frame bear tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but a modest short lean survives — all net moves negative (4h -0.93%, 12h -0.92%, 24h -1.17%), 5m/15m bear-aligned, 1h taker 0.688 (sellers pressing), last 3 taker buckets all sub-0.74. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short-frame momentum is the strongest cluster — bear EMA stacks on 5m/15m, downward-accelerating OI (oi_momentum accelerating_down, oi_5m_z -0.59), fresh selling pressure in taker ratio, price sitting below the 5d/20d highs (-3.2%/-3.5%); the trend-fade on 4h bull is offset by the fact that 4h ADX is only 14.4 (chop, not a real trend to lean against). 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply negative funding (funding_z -4.9, agg_funding_z -5.5) marks a crowded-short setup ripe for a short squeeze that reclaims the 1h EMAs. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop_loss 2465.5 beyond the recent 1h swing/1h EMA reclaim zone (~1.14% risk, inside the ~1.47% 24h traversal); take_profit_1 2408.0 at the 5d-low approach (~1.22% reward, R:R ~1.07, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: chop tape with weak trend, short-frame edge but squeeze risk from extreme negative funding — moderate p_tp1, meaningful p_expire.
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