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ETHUSD short — 15 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,487.2 and hit its target at 2,463.6 after 8.1 hours, closing at +0.95%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-15 05:28 |
| Entry | 2,487.2 |
| Stop-loss | 2,521.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,463.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,447.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.15 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,463.6 |
| Realized P&L | +0.95% |
| Time open | 8.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed 0/4 (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h/4h bull EMA), 1h ADX 21.8 slope -3.6 (fading), ADX-20 17.1, ER-10 0.44 / ER-30 0.05 (short-frame semi-clean, longer nets nowhere), choppiness 30.7 (leaning-trend), Hurst 0.24 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a low-conviction tape currently selling off (-1.04% 4h, -1.76% 12h, -1.09% 24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short — fresh downward momentum, OI accelerating_down, taker ratio collapsing to 0.68, funding negative and unwinding all tilt bearish near-term despite the 1h/4h bull EMA stack. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow cluster leads — oi_momentum accelerating_down (oi_15m_z -1.98), agg_oi_24h -1.29, latest taker ratio 0.68 (heavy sell pressure), funding negative (-0.0046 delta), and all net moves negative; the higher-TF bull EMAs are lagging and ADX is fading, so momentum favors the down-side continuation toward the 5d low. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim of ~2510 with taker ratio flipping back >1 and OI turning up would invalidate the short and confirm the 1h/4h bull stack reasserting. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2487.21; stop_loss 2521.40 above the recent 4h swing / bull-EMA reclaim zone (~1.37% risk, within rv/atr range); take_profit_1 2447.80 targeting toward the 5d low area (~1.58% reward, R:R ~1.15, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors down but mean-reverting Hurst + bull higher-TF caps conviction — p_tp1 41, p_sl 36, p_expire 23.
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