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ETHUSD short — 15 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,451.7 and hit its target at 2,416 after 55 minutes, closing at +1.46%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-15 13:43 |
| Entry | 2,451.7 |
| Stop-loss | 2,482.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,430.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,416 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,416 |
| Realized P&L | +1.46% |
| Time open | 55 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bear EMA, 1h mixed, 4h bull), 1h ADX 16.3 slope -0.9 (weak/fading), ADX-20 13.2, ER-10 0.53 / ER-30 0.27 (short-frame semi-clean, longer nets nowhere), choppiness 36.8 (leaning-trend), Hurst 0.27 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a low-conviction tape selling off (-0.91% 4h, -2.54% 12h, -1.97% 24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short — near-term momentum is down and price is losing structure, but 15m RSI 24.5 and 5m RSI 31.7 are oversold and funding is deeply negative (z -3.5/-3.0), so a bounce risk exists; the downside momentum still edges it. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: fresh 12h/24h downtrend with all short/mid EMA stacks bear and oi bleeding (agg OI -3.1%, oi_5m_z -2.6) — shorts pressing while price sits -6.8% from 5d high; trend-aligned on the frames doing the work. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply negative funding z (-3.5) plus oversold 15m RSI (24.5) is classic short-squeeze fuel — a reclaim of ~2475 with taker buying would flip this into a bounce. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2451.74, stop above the recent minor structure/squeeze zone at 2482.5 (~1.25% risk, within rv range); target the 5d-low support extension at 2416.0 (~1.46% reward, R:R ~1.16, inside clamps, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 1.2% but momentum extended). 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold + squeeze risk caps it — p_tp1 43, p_sl 37, p_expire 20.
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