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ETHUSD short — 16 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,411.4 and stopped out at 2,453 after 10.9 hours, closing at -1.73%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-16 20:13 |
| Entry | 2,411.4 |
| Stop-loss | 2,453 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,385.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,367.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.05 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,453 |
| Realized P&L | -1.73% |
| Time open | 10.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 15m/1h EMA bear-aligned, 5m/4h mixed (alignment 2/4); 1h ADX 27.9 but slope -5.9 (fading hard), ADX-20 26.2, ER-10 0.08 / ER-30 0.02 (path nets nowhere), choppiness 60.9 (range-bound edge), Hurst 0.36 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a maturing bear stack decaying into low-efficiency drift, price sitting at 5d/20d low (dist +0.97%) with z-score -1.67. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short — bear EMA stack on the trending TFs and price pinned near lows, but the trend is fading and net_move_4h is +0.86% (a bounce off the low); this asset's recent short calls are 3-3 and same-regime chop calls are 1-4 (mostly SL). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest short cluster is trend structure — 15m/1h bear-aligned with 4h RSI 40 and mark trapped at the 20d low; oi_momentum accelerating_down and oi_5m_z -0.42 show longs unwinding, no reclaim of a broken level to justify a long. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio 1.34 (net long) plus taker 1.01 and a fresh +0.86% 4h bounce off a deeply -1.67 z-score low would flip this into a mean-reversion squeeze, invalidating the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2411.39; stop above the recent 4h bounce structure at 2453.0 (~1.73% / ~1x atr-driven daily range); take_profit_1 stretch at 2367.5 (~1.82% down, RR ~1.05) targeting a clean break of the 5d low. 6. EXPECTATION: fading trend, mean-reverting Hurst and near-low positioning keep p_expire meaningful.
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