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ETHUSD short — 16 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,384.5 and stopped out at 2,412 after 34 minutes, closing at -1.15%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-16 19:28 |
| Entry | 2,384.5 |
| Stop-loss | 2,412 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,362.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,347.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.35 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,412 |
| Realized P&L | -1.15% |
| Time open | 34 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 15m/1h EMA bear-aligned, 5m/4h mixed (alignment 2/4); 1h ADX 29.7 but slope -3.7 (fading), ER-10 0.28 / ER-30 0.24 (low-efficiency path), choppiness 61 (range-bound edge), Hurst 0.36 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a maturing bear stack decaying into low-efficiency drift, price sitting at 5d/20d low (dist +0.00%). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short — bear EMA stack on the two dominant TFs, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.36, oi_15m_z -2.57), agg OI -1.14% and Coinalyze funding z -0.50 (longs unwinding), net moves negative across 4h/12h/24h. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is the flow/OI unwind (accelerating_down OI + agg OI negative + taker 0.99 neutral-to-sell) atop a still-bear EMA stack — trend-aligned continuation lower, consistent with 3 prior winning shorts on this asset. 4. PRE-MORTEM: sitting exactly at 20d low with rolling z -2.33 (deeply stretched) and top-traders net long (pos ratio 1.37, delta +0.05) — an oversold reclaim bounce would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent intraday supply / prior consolidation at 2412 (beyond the fading-trend invalidation, ~1.15% = ~0.34x rv_24h, sane width); target the stretch toward the next liquidity shelf at 2352, RR ~1.35 vs stop, well inside clamps and reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 1.6%. 6. EXPECTATION: fading ADX + oversold z + top-trader long argue meaningful bounce risk, so I keep p_sl elevated and a real p_expire given low-efficiency chop.
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